Post-Treaty Nuclear Posture Shift
For the first time in decades, the United States nuclear arsenal is operating without the constraints of a bilateral arms control treaty. The New START agreement between Washington and Moscow expired recently without a replacement, and the US Air Force is signaling that it is ready to take advantage of the newfound flexibility. Air Force Global Strike Command (AFGSC) has confirmed that it maintains the capability and training to restore nuclear armament to all 76 B-52H bombers and equip Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles with multiple warheads, should the President direct such a move.
The implications are significant. Under New START, the United States and Russia each faced hard caps on deployed strategic missiles, bombers, nuclear warheads, and launchers. Those constraints shaped force structure decisions for over a decade, including the deliberate de-nuclearization of 30 B-52H bombers and the downloading of Minuteman IIIs from their original multi-warhead configuration to a single warhead per missile.
Returning to a Multi-Warhead ICBM Force
The United States currently fields 400 Minuteman III missiles in silos spread across five states. Each carries a single W78 or W87 nuclear warhead. When the LGM-30G first entered service in 1970, however, each missile carried three independently targetable warheads -- a configuration known as MIRV (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle). The now-retired LGM-118A Peacekeeper could carry up to 11 warheads simultaneously.
Retired General Anthony Cotton, former head of US Strategic Command, stated in 2024 that the military needed to "take serious consideration in seeing what uploading and re-MIRVing the ICBM looks like." With New START's constraints lifted, that consideration has moved from theoretical to operational. An AFGSC spokesperson confirmed the command "maintains the capability and training to MIRV the Minuteman III ICBM force" if ordered. The W78 warhead carries a reported yield of approximately 335 kilotons, while the W87 delivers at least 300 kilotons with the potential to be modified upward to 475 kilotons.
Making the Entire B-52 Fleet Dual-Capable
Restoring nuclear capability to the 30 conventional-only B-52H bombers is considered a comparatively straightforward process. When those aircraft were converted to conventional-only status to meet New START requirements, the modifications involved removing nuclear code enabling switches, disconnecting specific cable systems, and installing inhibitor plates. A 2018 letter from Russian authorities to their American counterparts, later published by the Wall Street Journal, actually complained that these steps appeared to be "potentially readily reversible" -- suggesting Moscow always viewed the conversion as easily undone.
Today, the nuclear-capable B-52Hs are visually distinguishable by a pair of prominent antennas mounted on either side of the rear fuselage. Reversing the conventional conversion would involve reinstalling the removed components and recertifying the aircraft for nuclear operations. While the process is not instantaneous, defense analysts consider it far less complex than the ICBM re-MIRVing effort.
Why It Matters
The expiration of New START marks a watershed moment in strategic nuclear policy. For the first time since the late Cold War, neither Washington nor Moscow is bound by verified limits on deployed nuclear weapons. While AFGSC framed the development as an opportunity to "streamline our focus and dedicate more resources to our core mission," the absence of any successor agreement raises serious questions about strategic stability. The readiness to rapidly expand the deployed nuclear arsenal could trigger parallel moves by Russia and China, potentially accelerating a three-way arms competition that arms control advocates have long warned about. The decisions made in this unconstrained environment will shape the global nuclear balance for years, if not decades, to come.
